Anomaly

“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.”

- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

In 100 years of electoral history, the Bellwether counties and states were not reflective of the popular presidential election result 3 times. In 1960 (Nixon v. Kennedy), in 2016 (Trump v. Clinton), and in 2020 (Biden v. Trump). The following is a presentation of the numbers.

What is an Electoral Bellwether?

A bellwether state or county is one that usually votes the same way as a majority of the country. Historically, these states tend to predict the eventual outcome of national elections. The word comes from the Middle English bellewether, which means a wether or male sheep that leads the flock, usually bearing a bell.

Introduction to Analysis

I studied the 2020 Election for over 8 months with over 275 hours of work into it.  I have read dozens of articles about the 2020 election.  I watched many hours of testimony of poll watchers, election observers, lawyers, computer experts and statisticians.  But the following information and analysis, which is readily available to everyone, is not based on any of that.  I passed my CPA Exam and looked at the Election in terms of historical comparison.  If I had never heard any other people’s analysis or read anything, my findings show that something was very much off in the results of the 2020 election. I heard all the claims of President Trump, his advisors and lawyers. I listened to many Media hosts and Writers go over all the fraud that was uncovered. I read about how Biden won with by far the lowest number of Counties (175 less than the previous record). I know about the Media Bias and Big Tech Censoring. But if the claims of fraud were true, it would show up in the numbers.

Findings

What was shocking was that the only abnormality besides 2016 and 2020 was the 1960 election of Nixon/Kennedy. In the last 100 years, it was believed to be the most corrupt election beside 2020. And there it is showing up outside the range of all the elections. In 1960, 47% of the Bellwethers voted wrong, and Kennedy lost them by an average of -4.7%, but won the popular vote by only .17%, a very slim margin. As contrasted to the 2020 Election, Biden lost the 17 Bellwether Counties by -10.5% but supposedly won the popular vote by 4.4%. A 14.9% swing (-10.5% to +4.4%), with 14 of the 17 Bellwether Counties voting wrong. Nothing like this has ever happened in 100 years.

What the 100 years spreadsheet also shows is that if the candidate won the 17 Bellwether Counties by more than 9%, they won the election by a landslide regardless of party, except in 2016 and 2020. According to the Average win of the 17 Bellwether Counties by Trump of 10.6% in 2016 and 10.5% in 2020, these 2 elections historically would have amounted to landslide wins. The 17 Bellwether Counties have become very predictive since 1952, and extremely predictive since 1984 regardless of Party.

The 17 Bellwether Counties from 1972 to 2016, correct 94% of the time. The 17 Bellwether Counties from 1984 to 2016, correct 97% of the time. The 17 Bellwether Counties in 2020, were supposedly only 18% correct. Besides 2020, in 100 years the least the Bellwether Counties were correct was 53% in Kennedy/Nixon 1960.

Investigated Areas

Click on the following sections for more information.

Conclusion

My conclusion after studying all these aspects of elections, some for 100 years, is I cannot see how Joe Biden won the Presidency. My analysis shows that President Trump not only won the 2020 Election in a Landslide, but also the 2016 Election in a Landslide. My analysis shows significant anomalies in the elections of 2020, 2016 and surprisingly in 1960. I would conclude that Mail in Votes in 2016 of 33 million and in 2020 of 66 million supposed votes account for the anomalies.

Contact

My phone number and email address are listed below. Please feel free to reach out to me with any questions, comments, or critiques.  Thank you for your time.

- Victor Gagliardi